Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place São Paulo’s September 29 maximum in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with 32–34 °C outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities. Northerly to northwesterly winds are advecting warmer air while subsidence under a building ridge supports mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, though scattered afternoon showers in some runs could modestly suppress the peak. This range sits well above the September climatological average high near 26 °C, reflecting an ongoing warm anomaly. Model spread remains modest, centered on timing and coverage of any convection, with fresh GFS and ECMWF runs expected before resolution. Traders are therefore weighting the 32–34 °C cluster most heavily while discounting both sub-30 °C and 36 °C+ scenarios.