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Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

Sagal Abdi-Wali 89%

Zack Polanski 11%

Pat Callaghan <1%

Adam Harrison <1%

Polymarket

$59,484 Vol.

Sagal Abdi-Wali 89%

Zack Polanski 11%

Pat Callaghan <1%

Adam Harrison <1%

Polymarket

$59,484 Vol.

icon for Sagal Abdi-Wali

Sagal Abdi-Wali

$19,887 Vol.

89%

icon for Zack Polanski

Zack Polanski

$24,747 Vol.

11%

icon for Pat Callaghan

Pat Callaghan

$505 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adam Harrison

Adam Harrison

$472 Vol.

<1%

icon for Richard Olszewski

Richard Olszewski

$644 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sarah Hayward

Sarah Hayward

$606 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tricia Leman

Tricia Leman

$505 Vol.

<1%

icon for Georgia Gould

Georgia Gould

$1,318 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lorna Jane Russell

Lorna Jane Russell

$483 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Stansell

David Stansell

$314 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hamza Chowdhury

Hamza Chowdhury

$813 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jim Monahan

Jim Monahan

$495 Vol.

<1%

icon for James White

James White

$611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Siân Berry

Siân Berry

$448 Vol.

<1%

icon for Charlie Clinton

Charlie Clinton

$505 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luisa Porritt

Luisa Porritt

$496 Vol.

<1%

icon for Keith Moffitt

Keith Moffitt

$519 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mehreen Malik

Mehreen Malik

$480 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gio Spinella

Gio Spinella

$508 Vol.

<1%

icon for Oliver Cooper

Oliver Cooper

$455 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Roberts

David Roberts

$831 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sarah Pochin

Sarah Pochin

$370 Vol.

<1%

icon for Andrew Feinstein

Andrew Feinstein

$3,471 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour holds Holborn and St Pancras with a strong historical margin in this safe inner-London seat, last defended by Keir Starmer in 2024. The October 8 by-election follows Starmer’s September resignation to pursue international roles, prompting Labour’s rapid selection of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali on September 9 after a shortlist of local councillors. Her profile as a long-term resident, former refugee, and current council leader with delivery on housing and energy bills underpins trader consensus on her frontrunner status. The Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski offers the clearest challenge, yet faces structural barriers in a constituency where Labour has consistently exceeded 40 percent. Other declared candidates, including Conservatives, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, and independents, register minimal implied probabilities given the seat’s partisan alignment and short campaign window.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$59,484
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour holds Holborn and St Pancras with a strong historical margin in this safe inner-London seat, last defended by Keir Starmer in 2024. The October 8 by-election follows Starmer’s September resignation to pursue international roles, prompting Labour’s rapid selection of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali on September 9 after a shortlist of local councillors. Her profile as a long-term resident, former refugee, and current council leader with delivery on housing and energy bills underpins trader consensus on her frontrunner status. The Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski offers the clearest challenge, yet faces structural barriers in a constituency where Labour has consistently exceeded 40 percent. Other declared candidates, including Conservatives, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, and independents, register minimal implied probabilities given the seat’s partisan alignment and short campaign window.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$59,484
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

30%
icon for Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

41%
icon for Will the Green Party candidate win 25-30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will the Green Party candidate win 25-30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

23%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 89%, followed by "Zack Polanski" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" has generated $59.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Zack Polanski" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.