Market icon

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

$769,509 Vol.

8+ 65%

7 17%

6 8%

5 6.0%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$769,509
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 4, 2025, 8:15 PM UTC
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$769,509 Vol.

Market icon

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

8+ 65%

7 17%

6 8%

5 6.0%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

2

$29,239 Vol.

1%

3

$77,420 Vol.

2%

4

$56,297 Vol.

3%

5

$29,462 Vol.

6%

6

$20,351 Vol.

8%

7

$126,643 Vol.

17%

8+

$293,432 Vol.

65%

About

Volume
$769,509
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 4, 2025, 8:15 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.