How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$266,057 Vol.
11–13 32%
14–16 29%
17–19 17%
8–10 13%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<5
$29,075 Vol.
1%
<5
$29,075 Vol.
1%
5–7
$20,911 Vol.
4%
5–7
$20,911 Vol.
4%
8–10
$17,836 Vol.
13%
8–10
$17,836 Vol.
13%
11–13
$78,145 Vol.
32%
11–13
$78,145 Vol.
32%
14–16
$21,762 Vol.
29%
14–16
$21,762 Vol.
29%
17–19
$79,224 Vol.
17%
17–19
$79,224 Vol.
17%
20+
$19,103 Vol.
8%
20+
$19,103 Vol.
8%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Created At: Dec 31, 2025, 5:10 PM UTC
Volume
$266,057End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 5:10 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$266,057 Vol.
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
11–13 32%
14–16 29%
17–19 17%
8–10 13%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<5
$29,075 Vol.
1%
5–7
$20,911 Vol.
4%
8–10
$17,836 Vol.
13%
11–13
$78,145 Vol.
32%
14–16
$21,762 Vol.
29%
17–19
$79,224 Vol.
17%
20+
$19,103 Vol.
8%
About
Volume
$266,057End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 5:10 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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