Recent April 2026 CPI data at 3.48% year-over-year, following 3.40% in March, combined with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.6% projection for FY27, underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Persistent food price pressures and upside risks from Middle East energy volatility and potential weak monsoon conditions support this trader consensus, while core inflation remains contained near 3.4%. Goldman Sachs’ revised 4.5% calendar-year forecast reinforces the view that the full-year average will exceed the midpoint of the 2-6% target band. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI release and RBI’s next monetary policy review, which could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 80%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.7%
2.25% to 2.99% 7.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
7%
3.00% to 3.74%
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
10%
4.50%+
80%
4.50%+ 80%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.7%
2.25% to 2.99% 7.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$806 Vol.
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
$525 Vol.
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
$415 Vol.
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
$23,764 Vol.
7%
3.00% to 3.74%
$517 Vol.
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
$23,340 Vol.
10%
4.50%+
$11,254 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent April 2026 CPI data at 3.48% year-over-year, following 3.40% in March, combined with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.6% projection for FY27, underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Persistent food price pressures and upside risks from Middle East energy volatility and potential weak monsoon conditions support this trader consensus, while core inflation remains contained near 3.4%. Goldman Sachs’ revised 4.5% calendar-year forecast reinforces the view that the full-year average will exceed the midpoint of the 2-6% target band. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI release and RBI’s next monetary policy review, which could refine these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,622End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent April 2026 CPI data at 3.48% year-over-year, following 3.40% in March, combined with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.6% projection for FY27, underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Persistent food price pressures and upside risks from Middle East energy volatility and potential weak monsoon conditions support this trader consensus, while core inflation remains contained near 3.4%. Goldman Sachs’ revised 4.5% calendar-year forecast reinforces the view that the full-year average will exceed the midpoint of the 2-6% target band. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI release and RBI’s next monetary policy review, which could refine these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$60,622End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data at 3.48% year-over-year, following 3.40% in March, combined with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.6% projection for FY27, underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Persistent food price pressures and upside risks from Middle East energy volatility and potential weak monsoon conditions support this trader consensus, while core inflation remains contained near 3.4%. Goldman Sachs’ revised 4.5% calendar-year forecast reinforces the view that the full-year average will exceed the midpoint of the 2-6% target band. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI release and RBI’s next monetary policy review, which could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions