Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25% (its highest since 1995), combined with persistent core inflation near or above target and wage gains above 5%, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.98%. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi, with record budget requests near ¥143 trillion and consumption tax cut proposals, adds upward pressure via higher debt issuance and risk premia. Yen weakness and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions further support inflation expectations, keeping trader-implied odds above 60% for yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher. With only three months to resolution and the BOJ signaling preemptive tightening, these forces anchor the leading outcome while dissent within the policy board introduces modest uncertainty around the pace of further hikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.5%
2.6-2.8% 3.0%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
62%
3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.5%
2.6-2.8% 3.0%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
17%
3.0%+
$12,797 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25% (its highest since 1995), combined with persistent core inflation near or above target and wage gains above 5%, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.98%. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi, with record budget requests near ¥143 trillion and consumption tax cut proposals, adds upward pressure via higher debt issuance and risk premia. Yen weakness and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions further support inflation expectations, keeping trader-implied odds above 60% for yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher. With only three months to resolution and the BOJ signaling preemptive tightening, these forces anchor the leading outcome while dissent within the policy board introduces modest uncertainty around the pace of further hikes.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$30,966End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25% (its highest since 1995), combined with persistent core inflation near or above target and wage gains above 5%, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.98%. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi, with record budget requests near ¥143 trillion and consumption tax cut proposals, adds upward pressure via higher debt issuance and risk premia. Yen weakness and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions further support inflation expectations, keeping trader-implied odds above 60% for yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher. With only three months to resolution and the BOJ signaling preemptive tightening, these forces anchor the leading outcome while dissent within the policy board introduces modest uncertainty around the pace of further hikes.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$30,966End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25% (its highest since 1995), combined with persistent core inflation near or above target and wage gains above 5%, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.98%. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi, with record budget requests near ¥143 trillion and consumption tax cut proposals, adds upward pressure via higher debt issuance and risk premia. Yen weakness and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions further support inflation expectations, keeping trader-implied odds above 60% for yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher. With only three months to resolution and the BOJ signaling preemptive tightening, these forces anchor the leading outcome while dissent within the policy board introduces modest uncertainty around the pace of further hikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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