**The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest since 1995—combined with persistent inflation pressures and elevated fiscal spending, anchors trader sentiment toward Japan’s 10-year JGB yield finishing 2026 at or above 3.0%.** Yields have traded near 2.98–3.00% in mid-September after briefly touching 3.0% earlier in the month, driven by BOJ Governor Ueda’s commitment to further normalization, record budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, and spillover from higher U.S. Treasury yields. With core inflation near the 2% target and the yen remaining weak, market-implied odds reflect expectations that policy tightening and debt-supply concerns will keep long-term rates elevated through year-end, though dissent within the BOJ and potential pauses in quantitative tightening introduce some downside risk to the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.5%
2.4-2.6% 6.9%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
18%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.5%
2.4-2.6% 6.9%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
18%
3.0%+
$11,705 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest since 1995—combined with persistent inflation pressures and elevated fiscal spending, anchors trader sentiment toward Japan’s 10-year JGB yield finishing 2026 at or above 3.0%.**
Yields have traded near 2.98–3.00% in mid-September after briefly touching 3.0% earlier in the month, driven by BOJ Governor Ueda’s commitment to further normalization, record budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, and spillover from higher U.S. Treasury yields. With core inflation near the 2% target and the yen remaining weak, market-implied odds reflect expectations that policy tightening and debt-supply concerns will keep long-term rates elevated through year-end, though dissent within the BOJ and potential pauses in quantitative tightening introduce some downside risk to the path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,873End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest since 1995—combined with persistent inflation pressures and elevated fiscal spending, anchors trader sentiment toward Japan’s 10-year JGB yield finishing 2026 at or above 3.0%.**
Yields have traded near 2.98–3.00% in mid-September after briefly touching 3.0% earlier in the month, driven by BOJ Governor Ueda’s commitment to further normalization, record budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, and spillover from higher U.S. Treasury yields. With core inflation near the 2% target and the yen remaining weak, market-implied odds reflect expectations that policy tightening and debt-supply concerns will keep long-term rates elevated through year-end, though dissent within the BOJ and potential pauses in quantitative tightening introduce some downside risk to the path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,873End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest since 1995—combined with persistent inflation pressures and elevated fiscal spending, anchors trader sentiment toward Japan’s 10-year JGB yield finishing 2026 at or above 3.0%.** Yields have traded near 2.98–3.00% in mid-September after briefly touching 3.0% earlier in the month, driven by BOJ Governor Ueda’s commitment to further normalization, record budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, and spillover from higher U.S. Treasury yields. With core inflation near the 2% target and the yen remaining weak, market-implied odds reflect expectations that policy tightening and debt-supply concerns will keep long-term rates elevated through year-end, though dissent within the BOJ and potential pauses in quantitative tightening introduce some downside risk to the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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