**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 88.5% implied probability that none will pass this year.** Bipartisan legislation such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games. Similar House bills remain in committee. The CFTC’s June 2026 notice of proposed rulemaking would permit broad-outcome sports contracts while restricting narrower ones, reflecting an ongoing federal regulatory approach rather than prohibition. State efforts, including Minnesota’s blocked ban and measures in Utah and Illinois, have produced a patchwork of litigation and limited restrictions, with federal courts frequently citing CFTC jurisdiction. With midterms approaching and no floor votes or broad congressional momentum evident, traders assess a nationwide statutory ban as improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
12% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 88.5% implied probability that none will pass this year.**
Bipartisan legislation such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games. Similar House bills remain in committee. The CFTC’s June 2026 notice of proposed rulemaking would permit broad-outcome sports contracts while restricting narrower ones, reflecting an ongoing federal regulatory approach rather than prohibition.
State efforts, including Minnesota’s blocked ban and measures in Utah and Illinois, have produced a patchwork of litigation and limited restrictions, with federal courts frequently citing CFTC jurisdiction. With midterms approaching and no floor votes or broad congressional momentum evident, traders assess a nationwide statutory ban as improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$19,895End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 88.5% implied probability that none will pass this year.**
Bipartisan legislation such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games. Similar House bills remain in committee. The CFTC’s June 2026 notice of proposed rulemaking would permit broad-outcome sports contracts while restricting narrower ones, reflecting an ongoing federal regulatory approach rather than prohibition.
State efforts, including Minnesota’s blocked ban and measures in Utah and Illinois, have produced a patchwork of litigation and limited restrictions, with federal courts frequently citing CFTC jurisdiction. With midterms approaching and no floor votes or broad congressional momentum evident, traders assess a nationwide statutory ban as improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,895End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 88.5% implied probability that none will pass this year.** Bipartisan legislation such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games. Similar House bills remain in committee. The CFTC’s June 2026 notice of proposed rulemaking would permit broad-outcome sports contracts while restricting narrower ones, reflecting an ongoing federal regulatory approach rather than prohibition. State efforts, including Minnesota’s blocked ban and measures in Utah and Illinois, have produced a patchwork of litigation and limited restrictions, with federal courts frequently citing CFTC jurisdiction. With midterms approaching and no floor votes or broad congressional momentum evident, traders assess a nationwide statutory ban as improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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