**Current forecasts from multiple sources (WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, Tutiempo, and Met Office) indicate a minimum temperature for Buenos Aires on September 28 in the 14–16°C range, with daytime highs near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies, easterly winds, and periods of rain or showers.** This aligns with typical early spring conditions moderated by Atlantic maritime air, where onshore flow and cloud cover limit both radiative cooling at night and daytime warming. No strong cold front or heat advection is evident in recent model runs, keeping the overnight low well above the 11°C threshold and below the 21°C mark. Trader sentiment appears split because the closely matched leading outcomes (48.5% for 11°C or below versus 44.5% for 21°C or higher) reflect uncertainty in how quickly any residual moisture or wind shifts could alter the diurnal temperature range, even as official guidance converges on mid-teen values. The specific 12–20°C bins trade lower, consistent with model consensus around 15°C but acknowledging that small forecast errors or local measurement differences could shift resolution. Updated runs from agencies like Argentina’s SMN or global ensembles will be the key near-term catalyst as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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