The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Marginal risk (Level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms across western Oklahoma into northwest Texas on September 26, 2026, driven by an upper trough over the central High Plains, lee-side surface troughing, and modest low-level moisture (dewpoints in the lower-to-mid 60s °F). Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear support isolated strong outflow winds and marginally severe hail as the dominant hazards, with model consensus and observed water-vapor imagery showing limited overlap of buoyancy and low-level shear needed for supercell tornadoes. Official probabilistic tornado graphics currently depict no risk areas, consistent with climatological expectations for late-September Plains setups. Updated SPC outlooks, NWS watches/warnings, and local storm reports will determine market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions