Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for July 20 in New York City, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between the mid-60s and low-70s amid weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Trader positioning reflects this range, with closely bunched probabilities across 62–72 °F bins driven by modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger radiational cooling under clear skies or for warmer readings if low-level moisture increases, keeping lower outcomes below 60 °F at low implied odds. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 20?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 20?
64-65°F 32%
66-67°F 29%
62-63°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
32%
66-67°F
29%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
3%
72°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 32%
66-67°F 29%
62-63°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
53°F or below
$146 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$237 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$1,306 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$828 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,564 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$154 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$264 Vol.
32%
66-67°F
$43 Vol.
29%
68-69°F
$52 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$220 Vol.
3%
72°F or higher
$375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for July 20 in New York City, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between the mid-60s and low-70s amid weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Trader positioning reflects this range, with closely bunched probabilities across 62–72 °F bins driven by modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger radiational cooling under clear skies or for warmer readings if low-level moisture increases, keeping lower outcomes below 60 °F at low implied odds. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,047End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for July 20 in New York City, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between the mid-60s and low-70s amid weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Trader positioning reflects this range, with closely bunched probabilities across 62–72 °F bins driven by modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger radiational cooling under clear skies or for warmer readings if low-level moisture increases, keeping lower outcomes below 60 °F at low implied odds. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,047End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for July 20 in New York City, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between the mid-60s and low-70s amid weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Trader positioning reflects this range, with closely bunched probabilities across 62–72 °F bins driven by modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger radiational cooling under clear skies or for warmer readings if low-level moisture increases, keeping lower outcomes below 60 °F at low implied odds. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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