Recent model runs from major forecasting centers show Moscow temperatures on July 21 likely peaking near 22–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak high-pressure ridging over European Russia. These conditions, typical for mid-July under neutral ENSO influence, allow daytime heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C bins because small shifts in forecast timing or local urban heat-island effects can easily move the daily maximum across those thresholds, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range due to limited potential for either rapid warming or significant cooling in the current synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System will likely refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 21?
24°C 35%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
11%
23°C
27%
24°C
35%
25°C
19%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 35%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
17°C or below
$496 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$410 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$918 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$665 Vol.
1%
21°C
$274 Vol.
3%
22°C
$169 Vol.
11%
23°C
$367 Vol.
27%
24°C
$347 Vol.
35%
25°C
$484 Vol.
19%
26°C
$253 Vol.
3%
27°C or higher
$98 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from major forecasting centers show Moscow temperatures on July 21 likely peaking near 22–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak high-pressure ridging over European Russia. These conditions, typical for mid-July under neutral ENSO influence, allow daytime heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C bins because small shifts in forecast timing or local urban heat-island effects can easily move the daily maximum across those thresholds, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range due to limited potential for either rapid warming or significant cooling in the current synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System will likely refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$4,481End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from major forecasting centers show Moscow temperatures on July 21 likely peaking near 22–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak high-pressure ridging over European Russia. These conditions, typical for mid-July under neutral ENSO influence, allow daytime heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C bins because small shifts in forecast timing or local urban heat-island effects can easily move the daily maximum across those thresholds, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range due to limited potential for either rapid warming or significant cooling in the current synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System will likely refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,481End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from major forecasting centers show Moscow temperatures on July 21 likely peaking near 22–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak high-pressure ridging over European Russia. These conditions, typical for mid-July under neutral ENSO influence, allow daytime heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C bins because small shifts in forecast timing or local urban heat-island effects can easily move the daily maximum across those thresholds, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range due to limited potential for either rapid warming or significant cooling in the current synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System will likely refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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