Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces high day-to-day temperature variability in mid-July, with typical maximums near 30–32 °C driven by the East Asian monsoon and variable cloud cover. Current model consensus from agencies such as the Hong Kong Observatory shows the July 20 maximum hovering around 29–31 °C, reflecting modest differences in predicted wind patterns and humidity that can shift daytime heating by 1–2 °C. These tight probabilities indicate traders are weighting the inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction, where small steering-flow changes or afternoon thunderstorm timing can alter peak readings. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 48 hours are likely to narrow the distribution further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$196,328 Vol.
$196,328 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$196,328 Vol.
$196,328 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
25°C or below
$398 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$17,622 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$28,844 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$56,085 Vol.
100%
30°C
$29,016 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$31,037 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$16,449 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$8,523 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,058 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$2,994 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces high day-to-day temperature variability in mid-July, with typical maximums near 30–32 °C driven by the East Asian monsoon and variable cloud cover. Current model consensus from agencies such as the Hong Kong Observatory shows the July 20 maximum hovering around 29–31 °C, reflecting modest differences in predicted wind patterns and humidity that can shift daytime heating by 1–2 °C. These tight probabilities indicate traders are weighting the inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction, where small steering-flow changes or afternoon thunderstorm timing can alter peak readings. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 48 hours are likely to narrow the distribution further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$196,328End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces high day-to-day temperature variability in mid-July, with typical maximums near 30–32 °C driven by the East Asian monsoon and variable cloud cover. Current model consensus from agencies such as the Hong Kong Observatory shows the July 20 maximum hovering around 29–31 °C, reflecting modest differences in predicted wind patterns and humidity that can shift daytime heating by 1–2 °C. These tight probabilities indicate traders are weighting the inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction, where small steering-flow changes or afternoon thunderstorm timing can alter peak readings. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 48 hours are likely to narrow the distribution further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$196,328End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces high day-to-day temperature variability in mid-July, with typical maximums near 30–32 °C driven by the East Asian monsoon and variable cloud cover. Current model consensus from agencies such as the Hong Kong Observatory shows the July 20 maximum hovering around 29–31 °C, reflecting modest differences in predicted wind patterns and humidity that can shift daytime heating by 1–2 °C. These tight probabilities indicate traders are weighting the inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction, where small steering-flow changes or afternoon thunderstorm timing can alter peak readings. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 48 hours are likely to narrow the distribution further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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