Recent KMA observations and medium-range guidance indicate Seoul will remain under a persistent high-pressure pattern with daytime highs several degrees above the July climatological average of ~29°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Model consensus points to light winds, elevated humidity, and modest cloud cover or scattered showers that could cap the daily maximum near 28–29°C, while any clearing or delayed precipitation raises the chance of reaching 30°C or higher. The 1–2°C spread among leading outcomes reflects typical forecast uncertainty in peak temperature timing and local urban heat-island effects two days ahead of resolution, with updated short-range model runs from KMA and global ensembles expected to narrow the range before July 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on July 21?
Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?
27°C 57%
28°C 30%
29°C 14%
30°C 1.3%
NEW
$107,063 Vol.
NEW
$107,063 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
57%
28°C
30%
29°C
14%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 57%
28°C 30%
29°C 14%
30°C 1.3%
NEW
$107,063 Vol.
NEW
$107,063 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
21°C or below
$440 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$408 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$13,166 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$22,513 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$19,226 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$7,296 Vol.
57%
28°C
$5,155 Vol.
30%
29°C
$11,998 Vol.
14%
30°C
$14,253 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$11,516 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA observations and medium-range guidance indicate Seoul will remain under a persistent high-pressure pattern with daytime highs several degrees above the July climatological average of ~29°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Model consensus points to light winds, elevated humidity, and modest cloud cover or scattered showers that could cap the daily maximum near 28–29°C, while any clearing or delayed precipitation raises the chance of reaching 30°C or higher. The 1–2°C spread among leading outcomes reflects typical forecast uncertainty in peak temperature timing and local urban heat-island effects two days ahead of resolution, with updated short-range model runs from KMA and global ensembles expected to narrow the range before July 21.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$107,063End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA observations and medium-range guidance indicate Seoul will remain under a persistent high-pressure pattern with daytime highs several degrees above the July climatological average of ~29°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Model consensus points to light winds, elevated humidity, and modest cloud cover or scattered showers that could cap the daily maximum near 28–29°C, while any clearing or delayed precipitation raises the chance of reaching 30°C or higher. The 1–2°C spread among leading outcomes reflects typical forecast uncertainty in peak temperature timing and local urban heat-island effects two days ahead of resolution, with updated short-range model runs from KMA and global ensembles expected to narrow the range before July 21.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$107,063End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent KMA observations and medium-range guidance indicate Seoul will remain under a persistent high-pressure pattern with daytime highs several degrees above the July climatological average of ~29°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Model consensus points to light winds, elevated humidity, and modest cloud cover or scattered showers that could cap the daily maximum near 28–29°C, while any clearing or delayed precipitation raises the chance of reaching 30°C or higher. The 1–2°C spread among leading outcomes reflects typical forecast uncertainty in peak temperature timing and local urban heat-island effects two days ahead of resolution, with updated short-range model runs from KMA and global ensembles expected to narrow the range before July 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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