Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?
28°C 42%
29°C 28%
27°C 15%
30°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 22, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
15%
28°C
42%
29°C
28%
30°C
11%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 42%
29°C 28%
27°C 15%
30°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 22, 2026
24°C or below
$144 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$118 Vol.
1%
26°C
$156 Vol.
4%
27°C
$209 Vol.
15%
28°C
$1,351 Vol.
42%
29°C
$196 Vol.
28%
30°C
$340 Vol.
11%
31°C
$110 Vol.
4%
32°C
$52 Vol.
1%
33°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$193 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$3,259End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,259End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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