Latest ECMWF and regional model runs for July 22 favor a modest westerly flow with partial cloud cover, keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam centered near 19–20°C and producing the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger ridging that could push readings to 21°C or higher, while the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions reduces odds of exceeding 22°C. These forecasts align with typical mid-July climatology after the late-June heatwave, with KNMI guidance and upstream Atlantic patterns reinforcing the current implied probabilities through resolution on the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 22?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 22?
19°C 43%
20°C 31%
18°C 22%
21°C 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Jul 22, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
22%
19°C
43%
20°C
31%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
20°C 31%
18°C 22%
21°C 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Jul 22, 2026
15°C or below
$415 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$379 Vol.
1%
17°C
$641 Vol.
3%
18°C
$769 Vol.
22%
19°C
$560 Vol.
43%
20°C
$1,555 Vol.
31%
21°C
$762 Vol.
5%
22°C
$344 Vol.
1%
23°C
$559 Vol.
1%
24°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$174 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and regional model runs for July 22 favor a modest westerly flow with partial cloud cover, keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam centered near 19–20°C and producing the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger ridging that could push readings to 21°C or higher, while the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions reduces odds of exceeding 22°C. These forecasts align with typical mid-July climatology after the late-June heatwave, with KNMI guidance and upstream Atlantic patterns reinforcing the current implied probabilities through resolution on the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$6,323End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and regional model runs for July 22 favor a modest westerly flow with partial cloud cover, keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam centered near 19–20°C and producing the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger ridging that could push readings to 21°C or higher, while the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions reduces odds of exceeding 22°C. These forecasts align with typical mid-July climatology after the late-June heatwave, with KNMI guidance and upstream Atlantic patterns reinforcing the current implied probabilities through resolution on the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,323End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and regional model runs for July 22 favor a modest westerly flow with partial cloud cover, keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam centered near 19–20°C and producing the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger ridging that could push readings to 21°C or higher, while the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions reduces odds of exceeding 22°C. These forecasts align with typical mid-July climatology after the late-June heatwave, with KNMI guidance and upstream Atlantic patterns reinforcing the current implied probabilities through resolution on the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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