Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Miami's July 21 overnight low will likely settle in the 78–83°F range, driven by persistently high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under humid subtropical conditions. Long-term trends show elevated minimum temperatures in South Florida, with recent July averages 2–4°F above historical normals around 77–78°F. Trader positioning reflects model spread on convective timing and any localized showers that could enhance cooling versus persistent cloud cover trapping heat, creating tight probabilities across mid-70s to mid-80s outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and next model runs will clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on July 21?
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 21?
82-83°F 41%
80-81°F 31%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
41%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 41%
80-81°F 31%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
73°F or below
$54 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$639 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$380 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$78 Vol.
13%
80-81°F
$189 Vol.
31%
82-83°F
$3,068 Vol.
41%
84-85°F
$56 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$294 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$33 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$235 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Miami's July 21 overnight low will likely settle in the 78–83°F range, driven by persistently high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under humid subtropical conditions. Long-term trends show elevated minimum temperatures in South Florida, with recent July averages 2–4°F above historical normals around 77–78°F. Trader positioning reflects model spread on convective timing and any localized showers that could enhance cooling versus persistent cloud cover trapping heat, creating tight probabilities across mid-70s to mid-80s outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and next model runs will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 9:31 PM ET
Volume
$5,159End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Miami's July 21 overnight low will likely settle in the 78–83°F range, driven by persistently high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under humid subtropical conditions. Long-term trends show elevated minimum temperatures in South Florida, with recent July averages 2–4°F above historical normals around 77–78°F. Trader positioning reflects model spread on convective timing and any localized showers that could enhance cooling versus persistent cloud cover trapping heat, creating tight probabilities across mid-70s to mid-80s outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and next model runs will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,159End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Miami's July 21 overnight low will likely settle in the 78–83°F range, driven by persistently high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under humid subtropical conditions. Long-term trends show elevated minimum temperatures in South Florida, with recent July averages 2–4°F above historical normals around 77–78°F. Trader positioning reflects model spread on convective timing and any localized showers that could enhance cooling versus persistent cloud cover trapping heat, creating tight probabilities across mid-70s to mid-80s outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and next model runs will clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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