Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for July 21 points to a highest temperature near 80°F in New York City, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83°F. Forecasters cite modest instability and possible afternoon convection that could cap peak readings through increased cloud cover and brief showers, while clear intervals and light winds would allow readings to reach the low 80s. Historical July climatology shows average highs near 83°F, yet current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture favor a slightly cooler outcome than seasonal norms. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 21?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 17%
76-77°F 15%
NEW
$21,432 Vol.
NEW
$21,432 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 17%
76-77°F 15%
NEW
$21,432 Vol.
NEW
$21,432 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
71°F or below
$393 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$547 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$2,609 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$3,461 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$7,272 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$936 Vol.
32%
82-83°F
$1,088 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$1,160 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$2,468 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$803 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$769 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for July 21 points to a highest temperature near 80°F in New York City, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83°F. Forecasters cite modest instability and possible afternoon convection that could cap peak readings through increased cloud cover and brief showers, while clear intervals and light winds would allow readings to reach the low 80s. Historical July climatology shows average highs near 83°F, yet current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture favor a slightly cooler outcome than seasonal norms. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 9:07 PM ET
Volume
$21,432End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 9:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for July 21 points to a highest temperature near 80°F in New York City, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83°F. Forecasters cite modest instability and possible afternoon convection that could cap peak readings through increased cloud cover and brief showers, while clear intervals and light winds would allow readings to reach the low 80s. Historical July climatology shows average highs near 83°F, yet current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture favor a slightly cooler outcome than seasonal norms. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,432End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 9:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for July 21 points to a highest temperature near 80°F in New York City, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83°F. Forecasters cite modest instability and possible afternoon convection that could cap peak readings through increased cloud cover and brief showers, while clear intervals and light winds would allow readings to reach the low 80s. Historical July climatology shows average highs near 83°F, yet current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture favor a slightly cooler outcome than seasonal norms. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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