**Persistent midsummer warmth under a high-pressure ridge is anchoring the lowest temperature in Incheon on August 4 near 27°C.** Official Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and global ensemble models project overnight minima of 26–28°C, consistent with typical early-August climatology for the region where average lows hover around 23–25°C but elevated humidity and light winds limit radiational cooling. Incheon’s coastal location provides modest moderation relative to inland Seoul, keeping extremes from deviating sharply. Recent observations show no significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through the period, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27°C (52%) and 28°C (27.5%) outcomes. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if a cooler air mass arrives earlier than currently expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?
27°C 69%
28°C 29%
26°C 18%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
18%
27°C
53%
28°C
29%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 69%
28°C 29%
26°C 18%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
$42 Vol.
1%
23°C
$48 Vol.
1%
24°C
$21 Vol.
2%
25°C
$5 Vol.
10%
26°C
$20 Vol.
18%
27°C
$30 Vol.
53%
28°C
$0 Vol.
29%
29°C
$35 Vol.
7%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent midsummer warmth under a high-pressure ridge is anchoring the lowest temperature in Incheon on August 4 near 27°C.** Official Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and global ensemble models project overnight minima of 26–28°C, consistent with typical early-August climatology for the region where average lows hover around 23–25°C but elevated humidity and light winds limit radiational cooling. Incheon’s coastal location provides modest moderation relative to inland Seoul, keeping extremes from deviating sharply. Recent observations show no significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through the period, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27°C (52%) and 28°C (27.5%) outcomes. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if a cooler air mass arrives earlier than currently expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$211End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent midsummer warmth under a high-pressure ridge is anchoring the lowest temperature in Incheon on August 4 near 27°C.** Official Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and global ensemble models project overnight minima of 26–28°C, consistent with typical early-August climatology for the region where average lows hover around 23–25°C but elevated humidity and light winds limit radiational cooling. Incheon’s coastal location provides modest moderation relative to inland Seoul, keeping extremes from deviating sharply. Recent observations show no significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through the period, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27°C (52%) and 28°C (27.5%) outcomes. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if a cooler air mass arrives earlier than currently expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$211End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent midsummer warmth under a high-pressure ridge is anchoring the lowest temperature in Incheon on August 4 near 27°C.** Official Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and global ensemble models project overnight minima of 26–28°C, consistent with typical early-August climatology for the region where average lows hover around 23–25°C but elevated humidity and light winds limit radiational cooling. Incheon’s coastal location provides modest moderation relative to inland Seoul, keeping extremes from deviating sharply. Recent observations show no significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through the period, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27°C (52%) and 28°C (27.5%) outcomes. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if a cooler air mass arrives earlier than currently expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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