Strong audience retention and minimal competition position "Michael" for a fourth-weekend gross above $25 million, the market's leading outcome at 59% implied probability. The Michael Jackson biopic opened to a record $97 million domestically in late April, followed by a $54 million second weekend and projections exceeding $20 million in its third frame, demonstrating better-than-expected legs for a musical biopic. Despite mixed critic scores, broad demographic appeal and sustained word-of-mouth have kept the film atop domestic charts into mid-May, outpacing typical genre decay patterns seen in predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." With no major releases challenging its hold through the weekend of May 15-17, traders see the $22-25 million tier as the primary alternative at 40.5%, reflecting a tight but favorable trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office
>25m 63%
22-25m 39%
19-22m <1%
<19m <1%
$51,333 Vol.
$51,333 Vol.
May 18, 2026
<19m
<1%
19-22m
<1%
22-25m
39%
>25m
63%
>25m 63%
22-25m 39%
19-22m <1%
<19m <1%
$51,333 Vol.
$51,333 Vol.
May 18, 2026
<19m
$5,438 Vol.
<1%
19-22m
$8,139 Vol.
<1%
22-25m
$6,551 Vol.
39%
>25m
$31,205 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and minimal competition position "Michael" for a fourth-weekend gross above $25 million, the market's leading outcome at 59% implied probability. The Michael Jackson biopic opened to a record $97 million domestically in late April, followed by a $54 million second weekend and projections exceeding $20 million in its third frame, demonstrating better-than-expected legs for a musical biopic. Despite mixed critic scores, broad demographic appeal and sustained word-of-mouth have kept the film atop domestic charts into mid-May, outpacing typical genre decay patterns seen in predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." With no major releases challenging its hold through the weekend of May 15-17, traders see the $22-25 million tier as the primary alternative at 40.5%, reflecting a tight but favorable trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$51,333End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and minimal competition position "Michael" for a fourth-weekend gross above $25 million, the market's leading outcome at 59% implied probability. The Michael Jackson biopic opened to a record $97 million domestically in late April, followed by a $54 million second weekend and projections exceeding $20 million in its third frame, demonstrating better-than-expected legs for a musical biopic. Despite mixed critic scores, broad demographic appeal and sustained word-of-mouth have kept the film atop domestic charts into mid-May, outpacing typical genre decay patterns seen in predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." With no major releases challenging its hold through the weekend of May 15-17, traders see the $22-25 million tier as the primary alternative at 40.5%, reflecting a tight but favorable trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$51,333End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong audience retention and minimal competition position "Michael" for a fourth-weekend gross above $25 million, the market's leading outcome at 59% implied probability. The Michael Jackson biopic opened to a record $97 million domestically in late April, followed by a $54 million second weekend and projections exceeding $20 million in its third frame, demonstrating better-than-expected legs for a musical biopic. Despite mixed critic scores, broad demographic appeal and sustained word-of-mouth have kept the film atop domestic charts into mid-May, outpacing typical genre decay patterns seen in predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." With no major releases challenging its hold through the weekend of May 15-17, traders see the $22-25 million tier as the primary alternative at 40.5%, reflecting a tight but favorable trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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