Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister rests on a stable National Democratic Alliance coalition government formed after the 2024 elections, with the next scheduled general election not due until 2029. As of mid-August 2026, Modi continues to lead actively, delivering the Independence Day address and advancing policy priorities such as youth skilling, defense modernization, and infrastructure without facing parliamentary no-confidence threats or coalition fractures capable of forcing his exit. Recent localized protests over examination irregularities prompted a cabinet resignation but have not translated into broader challenges to the prime minister’s tenure. Traders assign only a 7.5% implied probability to removal by year-end, reflecting the absence of credible near-term triggers like snap polls, health crises, or party revolts that could alter the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedModi out by December 31, 2026?
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
8% chance
$244,387 Vol.
$244,387 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$244,387 Vol.
$244,387 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister rests on a stable National Democratic Alliance coalition government formed after the 2024 elections, with the next scheduled general election not due until 2029. As of mid-August 2026, Modi continues to lead actively, delivering the Independence Day address and advancing policy priorities such as youth skilling, defense modernization, and infrastructure without facing parliamentary no-confidence threats or coalition fractures capable of forcing his exit. Recent localized protests over examination irregularities prompted a cabinet resignation but have not translated into broader challenges to the prime minister’s tenure. Traders assign only a 7.5% implied probability to removal by year-end, reflecting the absence of credible near-term triggers like snap polls, health crises, or party revolts that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$244,387End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister rests on a stable National Democratic Alliance coalition government formed after the 2024 elections, with the next scheduled general election not due until 2029. As of mid-August 2026, Modi continues to lead actively, delivering the Independence Day address and advancing policy priorities such as youth skilling, defense modernization, and infrastructure without facing parliamentary no-confidence threats or coalition fractures capable of forcing his exit. Recent localized protests over examination irregularities prompted a cabinet resignation but have not translated into broader challenges to the prime minister’s tenure. Traders assign only a 7.5% implied probability to removal by year-end, reflecting the absence of credible near-term triggers like snap polls, health crises, or party revolts that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$244,387End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister rests on a stable National Democratic Alliance coalition government formed after the 2024 elections, with the next scheduled general election not due until 2029. As of mid-August 2026, Modi continues to lead actively, delivering the Independence Day address and advancing policy priorities such as youth skilling, defense modernization, and infrastructure without facing parliamentary no-confidence threats or coalition fractures capable of forcing his exit. Recent localized protests over examination irregularities prompted a cabinet resignation but have not translated into broader challenges to the prime minister’s tenure. Traders assign only a 7.5% implied probability to removal by year-end, reflecting the absence of credible near-term triggers like snap polls, health crises, or party revolts that could alter the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions