India and Pakistan maintain elevated tensions following their May 2025 four-day conflict, when India conducted air and missile strikes under Operation Sindoor in response to a Kashmir terror attack, prompting Pakistani retaliation before a fragile ceasefire took hold. The most recent catalyst is the September 15, 2026, collision between an Indian destroyer and a Pakistani patrol vessel in the Arabian Sea, which triggered mutual diplomatic protests over territorial waters and prior notification rules. Indian officials have reiterated that terror incidents originating from Pakistani territory would constitute an act of war, while both sides continue disputes over the Indus Waters Treaty suspension and Kashmir. These developments, alongside ongoing militant activity and military modernization, shape trader assessments of near-term Indian strike probabilities amid the absence of immediate de-escalation mechanisms.