Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal pretrial detention in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas, alongside his wife Cilia Flores. The pair face narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, weapons, and related charges in the Southern District of New York, with a June 2027 trial date set after not-guilty pleas. Venezuelan officials, including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s government and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, have demanded his immediate release, framing the operation as unlawful, while the U.S. proceeds with prosecution. Limited diplomatic signals, ongoing motions practice, potential plea discussions, health considerations, or shifts in enforcement priorities represent the main variables that could influence release timing ahead of or during the trial. Trader consensus reflects the extended legal timeline and absence of near-term resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,782 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,782 Vol.
December 31
$292,333 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal pretrial detention in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas, alongside his wife Cilia Flores. The pair face narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, weapons, and related charges in the Southern District of New York, with a June 2027 trial date set after not-guilty pleas. Venezuelan officials, including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s government and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, have demanded his immediate release, framing the operation as unlawful, while the U.S. proceeds with prosecution. Limited diplomatic signals, ongoing motions practice, potential plea discussions, health considerations, or shifts in enforcement priorities represent the main variables that could influence release timing ahead of or during the trial. Trader consensus reflects the extended legal timeline and absence of near-term resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal pretrial detention in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas, alongside his wife Cilia Flores. The pair face narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, weapons, and related charges in the Southern District of New York, with a June 2027 trial date set after not-guilty pleas. Venezuelan officials, including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s government and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, have demanded his immediate release, framing the operation as unlawful, while the U.S. proceeds with prosecution. Limited diplomatic signals, ongoing motions practice, potential plea discussions, health considerations, or shifts in enforcement priorities represent the main variables that could influence release timing ahead of or during the trial. Trader consensus reflects the extended legal timeline and absence of near-term resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal pretrial detention in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas, alongside his wife Cilia Flores. The pair face narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, weapons, and related charges in the Southern District of New York, with a June 2027 trial date set after not-guilty pleas. Venezuelan officials, including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s government and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, have demanded his immediate release, framing the operation as unlawful, while the U.S. proceeds with prosecution. Limited diplomatic signals, ongoing motions practice, potential plea discussions, health considerations, or shifts in enforcement priorities represent the main variables that could influence release timing ahead of or during the trial. Trader consensus reflects the extended legal timeline and absence of near-term resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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