Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military raid on Caracas that also detained his wife, Cilia Flores. He faces longstanding Southern District of New York charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses, to which he and Flores have pleaded not guilty. Legal proceedings have included arraignments and hearings under special administrative measures, with recent adjournments extending into spring 2026 and potential appeals reaching the Supreme Court on the validity of the extraterritorial arrest. Venezuela’s interim authorities, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, have released hundreds of political prisoners and all known American detainees while publicly demanding Maduro’s immediate return as a precondition for normalized relations. Traders monitor trial timelines, plea negotiations, health developments, or diplomatic breakthroughs as the primary variables that could trigger release before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,631,311 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
14%
$2,631,311 Vol.
December 31
$235,862 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military raid on Caracas that also detained his wife, Cilia Flores. He faces longstanding Southern District of New York charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses, to which he and Flores have pleaded not guilty. Legal proceedings have included arraignments and hearings under special administrative measures, with recent adjournments extending into spring 2026 and potential appeals reaching the Supreme Court on the validity of the extraterritorial arrest. Venezuela’s interim authorities, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, have released hundreds of political prisoners and all known American detainees while publicly demanding Maduro’s immediate return as a precondition for normalized relations. Traders monitor trial timelines, plea negotiations, health developments, or diplomatic breakthroughs as the primary variables that could trigger release before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,631,311End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military raid on Caracas that also detained his wife, Cilia Flores. He faces longstanding Southern District of New York charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses, to which he and Flores have pleaded not guilty. Legal proceedings have included arraignments and hearings under special administrative measures, with recent adjournments extending into spring 2026 and potential appeals reaching the Supreme Court on the validity of the extraterritorial arrest. Venezuela’s interim authorities, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, have released hundreds of political prisoners and all known American detainees while publicly demanding Maduro’s immediate return as a precondition for normalized relations. Traders monitor trial timelines, plea negotiations, health developments, or diplomatic breakthroughs as the primary variables that could trigger release before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,631,311End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military raid on Caracas that also detained his wife, Cilia Flores. He faces longstanding Southern District of New York charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses, to which he and Flores have pleaded not guilty. Legal proceedings have included arraignments and hearings under special administrative measures, with recent adjournments extending into spring 2026 and potential appeals reaching the Supreme Court on the validity of the extraterritorial arrest. Venezuela’s interim authorities, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, have released hundreds of political prisoners and all known American detainees while publicly demanding Maduro’s immediate return as a precondition for normalized relations. Traders monitor trial timelines, plea negotiations, health developments, or diplomatic breakthroughs as the primary variables that could trigger release before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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