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icon for NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

icon for NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

NEW
Jul 18, 2026
Polymarket

$1,123 Vol.

Polymarket

July 18

$393 Vol.

17%

July 19

$73 Vol.

63%

July 20

$314 Vol.

86%

July 21

$343 Vol.

87%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent Canadian wildfire smoke, particularly from western Ontario, has driven NYC's Air Quality Index well above 100 in mid-July 2026, with readings reaching very unhealthy levels over 200 on July 16 due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Statewide air quality health advisories remain active amid a coinciding heat wave that can worsen ozone formation. Forecasters note the plume may ease for most of the region by July 17–18 as winds shift, though temporary spikes could persist depending on plume movement and local weather patterns. Ongoing Canadian fire activity and seasonal summer conditions continue to influence short-term AQI trends in the Northeast.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.

This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,123
End Date
Jul 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 2:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent Canadian wildfire smoke, particularly from western Ontario, has driven NYC's Air Quality Index well above 100 in mid-July 2026, with readings reaching very unhealthy levels over 200 on July 16 due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Statewide air quality health advisories remain active amid a coinciding heat wave that can worsen ozone formation. Forecasters note the plume may ease for most of the region by July 17–18 as winds shift, though temporary spikes could persist depending on plume movement and local weather patterns. Ongoing Canadian fire activity and seasonal summer conditions continue to influence short-term AQI trends in the Northeast.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.

This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,123
End Date
Jul 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 2:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "July 21" at 87%, followed by "July 20" at 86%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" is "July 21" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "July 20" at 86%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.