Zohran Mamdani assumed the New York City mayoralty on January 1, 2026, following his 2025 election victory, and has maintained a stable position through September 2026 with approval ratings near 58 percent that have risen amid policy advances on universal childcare funding, rent stabilization, and budget deficit closure. Traders assign 97.2 percent probability to his remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of scandals, indictments, health crises, or credible recall campaigns, combined with the high procedural thresholds for removal under the city charter, including gubernatorial action requiring due process or a supermajority vote by the Inability Committee. Recent developments such as meetings with President Trump on housing and immigration, public releases of 9/11 records, and coalition-building with state officials have reinforced continuity. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unforeseen incapacity, major ethical findings prompting gubernatorial intervention, or an unexpected resignation before year-end.