The Black Ball has surged to an implied 79% probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Oscar for Best International Feature Film, driven by Spain’s official selection on September 16 after it earned the best director prize at Cannes and the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. The Netflix-backed queer epic spanning decades of Spanish history has generated strong critical consensus and early industry momentum, bolstered by a high-profile campaign and historical precedent favoring festival standouts with broad precursor support. Other contenders such as Fjord, Possible Love, Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden sit at single-digit odds, reflecting solid submissions and festival pedigrees but less dominant early positioning. Traders are watching the December 15 shortlist and January 21 nominations as key catalysts that could shift sentiment before the March 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner
Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner
The Black Ball 79%
Possible Love 6.3%
Fatherland 5.9%
Fjord 4.5%
$32,485 Vol.
$32,485 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
79%
Possible Love
6%
Fatherland
6%
Fjord
5%
All of a Sudden
3%
Minotaur
2%
The Dreamed Adventure
1%
Parallel Tales
1%
Sheep in the Box
1%
The Man I Love
<1%
Coward
<1%
Bitter Christmas
<1%
The Beloved
<1%
Rose
<1%
Hope
<1%
The Black Ball 79%
Possible Love 6.3%
Fatherland 5.9%
Fjord 4.5%
$32,485 Vol.
$32,485 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
$15,262 Vol.
79%
Possible Love
$1,713 Vol.
6%
Fatherland
$1,590 Vol.
6%
Fjord
$1,792 Vol.
5%
All of a Sudden
$1,713 Vol.
3%
Minotaur
$1,758 Vol.
2%
The Dreamed Adventure
$554 Vol.
1%
Parallel Tales
$715 Vol.
1%
Sheep in the Box
$704 Vol.
1%
The Man I Love
$690 Vol.
<1%
Coward
$1,501 Vol.
<1%
Bitter Christmas
$693 Vol.
<1%
The Beloved
$1,841 Vol.
<1%
Rose
$1,254 Vol.
<1%
Hope
$705 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Black Ball has surged to an implied 79% probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Oscar for Best International Feature Film, driven by Spain’s official selection on September 16 after it earned the best director prize at Cannes and the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. The Netflix-backed queer epic spanning decades of Spanish history has generated strong critical consensus and early industry momentum, bolstered by a high-profile campaign and historical precedent favoring festival standouts with broad precursor support. Other contenders such as Fjord, Possible Love, Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden sit at single-digit odds, reflecting solid submissions and festival pedigrees but less dominant early positioning. Traders are watching the December 15 shortlist and January 21 nominations as key catalysts that could shift sentiment before the March 14 ceremony.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:34 AM ET
Volume
$32,485End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Black Ball has surged to an implied 79% probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Oscar for Best International Feature Film, driven by Spain’s official selection on September 16 after it earned the best director prize at Cannes and the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. The Netflix-backed queer epic spanning decades of Spanish history has generated strong critical consensus and early industry momentum, bolstered by a high-profile campaign and historical precedent favoring festival standouts with broad precursor support. Other contenders such as Fjord, Possible Love, Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden sit at single-digit odds, reflecting solid submissions and festival pedigrees but less dominant early positioning. Traders are watching the December 15 shortlist and January 21 nominations as key catalysts that could shift sentiment before the March 14 ceremony.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,485End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Black Ball has surged to an implied 79% probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Oscar for Best International Feature Film, driven by Spain’s official selection on September 16 after it earned the best director prize at Cannes and the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. The Netflix-backed queer epic spanning decades of Spanish history has generated strong critical consensus and early industry momentum, bolstered by a high-profile campaign and historical precedent favoring festival standouts with broad precursor support. Other contenders such as Fjord, Possible Love, Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden sit at single-digit odds, reflecting solid submissions and festival pedigrees but less dominant early positioning. Traders are watching the December 15 shortlist and January 21 nominations as key catalysts that could shift sentiment before the March 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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