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Finance·S&P 500

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

icon for What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
Finance·S&P 500

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$181,903 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$181,903 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $8,000

$17,421 Vol.

20%

↑ $7,850

$7 Vol.

38%

↑ $7,700

$13,704 Vol.

31%

↑ $7,600

$65 Vol.

56%

↑ $7,450

$20,166 Vol.

100%

↓ $7,100

$316 Vol.

35%

↓ $6,900

$716 Vol.

24%

↓ $6,700

$790 Vol.

26%

↓ $6,500

$702 Vol.

13%

↓ $6,300

$30,580 Vol.

11%

↓ $6,000

$36,941 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 rallied to a record high near 7,450 on May 13, extending its six-week winning streak amid resilient Q1 earnings, AI-fueled tech sector gains, and steady April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This advance persists despite hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran conflict spikes in energy prices. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures implying no policy shift through year-end, trader sentiment reflects optimism on economic durability. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes on May 20, May CPI release June 10, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$181,903
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:32 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 rallied to a record high near 7,450 on May 13, extending its six-week winning streak amid resilient Q1 earnings, AI-fueled tech sector gains, and steady April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This advance persists despite hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran conflict spikes in energy prices. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures implying no policy shift through year-end, trader sentiment reflects optimism on economic durability. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes on May 20, May CPI release June 10, and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$181,903
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:32 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $7,450" at 100%, followed by "↑ $7,300" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?" has generated $181.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?" is "↑ $7,450" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $7,300" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.