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icon for U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

icon for U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

76% chance
Polymarket
NEW
76% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information. The State Department’s late-April announcement of limited-edition America 250 commemorative passports featuring President Trump’s portrait has driven the current trader consensus. Officials confirmed a rollout of 25,000–30,000 documents beginning around July 4 at the Washington Passport Agency, with the design placing Trump’s image and signature on the inside cover while preserving standard security features. This schedule places initial issuance well inside the July 31 resolution window, supporting the 78% implied probability for a Yes outcome. No subsequent procedural delays or policy reversals have been reported, and the project remains on track as a one-time commemorative initiative tied to the nation’s semiquincentennial.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information.
Volume
$8,980
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information. The State Department’s late-April announcement of limited-edition America 250 commemorative passports featuring President Trump’s portrait has driven the current trader consensus. Officials confirmed a rollout of 25,000–30,000 documents beginning around July 4 at the Washington Passport Agency, with the design placing Trump’s image and signature on the inside cover while preserving standard security features. This schedule places initial issuance well inside the July 31 resolution window, supporting the 78% implied probability for a Yes outcome. No subsequent procedural delays or policy reversals have been reported, and the project remains on track as a one-time commemorative initiative tied to the nation’s semiquincentennial.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information.
Volume
$8,980
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 76% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 76¢, the market collectively assigns a 76% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?" is 76% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 76% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.