Trump proposed a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend in November 2025, to be funded by new import duties and potentially issued in 2026, while also directing revenue toward deficit reduction. The idea has faced structural barriers, including the need for fresh congressional legislation that analysts say lacks sufficient support, plus a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that curtailed portions of the administration’s tariff authority and lowered projected collections. Independent estimates place the cost of broad rebates at $300–450 billion against roughly $200 billion in expected 2026 tariff revenue, widening the fiscal gap. No formal bill has advanced, and administration statements through early 2026 offered no firm timeline or mechanism. These legislative, legal, and revenue constraints explain why traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026, cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
10% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump proposed a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend in November 2025, to be funded by new import duties and potentially issued in 2026, while also directing revenue toward deficit reduction. The idea has faced structural barriers, including the need for fresh congressional legislation that analysts say lacks sufficient support, plus a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that curtailed portions of the administration’s tariff authority and lowered projected collections. Independent estimates place the cost of broad rebates at $300–450 billion against roughly $200 billion in expected 2026 tariff revenue, widening the fiscal gap. No formal bill has advanced, and administration statements through early 2026 offered no firm timeline or mechanism. These legislative, legal, and revenue constraints explain why traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026, cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,883Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump proposed a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend in November 2025, to be funded by new import duties and potentially issued in 2026, while also directing revenue toward deficit reduction. The idea has faced structural barriers, including the need for fresh congressional legislation that analysts say lacks sufficient support, plus a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that curtailed portions of the administration’s tariff authority and lowered projected collections. Independent estimates place the cost of broad rebates at $300–450 billion against roughly $200 billion in expected 2026 tariff revenue, widening the fiscal gap. No formal bill has advanced, and administration statements through early 2026 offered no firm timeline or mechanism. These legislative, legal, and revenue constraints explain why traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026, cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,883Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump proposed a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend in November 2025, to be funded by new import duties and potentially issued in 2026, while also directing revenue toward deficit reduction. The idea has faced structural barriers, including the need for fresh congressional legislation that analysts say lacks sufficient support, plus a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that curtailed portions of the administration’s tariff authority and lowered projected collections. Independent estimates place the cost of broad rebates at $300–450 billion against roughly $200 billion in expected 2026 tariff revenue, widening the fiscal gap. No formal bill has advanced, and administration statements through early 2026 offered no firm timeline or mechanism. These legislative, legal, and revenue constraints explain why traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026, cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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