US officials have repeatedly threatened strikes on Mexican territory against drug cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, yet no such aerial, drone, or missile operations have occurred on Mexican soil through September 2026. The Trump administration has instead expanded intelligence sharing and joint task forces that supported Mexican raids, including the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader El Mencho, while conducting over 60 lethal maritime strikes on suspected trafficking vessels. Bilateral security cooperation has deepened, border encounters have fallen sharply, and fentanyl seizures have declined, leading the administration to shelve direct-action plans for now amid improved diplomatic and commercial ties with Mexico. Traders assign low probability to a qualifying strike by year-end absent a major breakdown in cooperation or new escalation.