What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
$46,955 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$16,829 Vol.
35%
Nuclear
$16,829 Vol.
35%
Oil/Gas
$7,659 Vol.
20%
Oil/Gas
$7,659 Vol.
20%
Tehran
$22,468 Vol.
47%
Tehran
$22,468 Vol.
47%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Created At: Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTC
Volume
$46,955End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$46,955 Vol.
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$16,829 Vol.
35%
Oil/Gas
$7,659 Vol.
20%
Tehran
$22,468 Vol.
47%
About
Volume
$46,955End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
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