What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
$46,455 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$16,826 Vol.
35%
Nuclear
$16,826 Vol.
35%
Oil/Gas
$7,308 Vol.
25%
Oil/Gas
$7,308 Vol.
25%
Tehran
$22,321 Vol.
48%
Tehran
$22,321 Vol.
48%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Created At: Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTC
Volume
$46,455End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$46,455 Vol.
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$16,826 Vol.
35%
Oil/Gas
$7,308 Vol.
25%
Tehran
$22,321 Vol.
48%
About
Volume
$46,455End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.