Trader consensus heavily favors no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on the Arena leaderboard in 2026, with Anthropic holding the clearest edge among named contenders. As of mid-August, top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit in the 1507–1525 range following mid-year releases such as Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and the GPT-5.6 family, reflecting steady but incremental gains rather than the rapid jumps needed to clear the remaining threshold before year-end. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of leaderboard movement and the absence of announced breakthroughs or capability demonstrations capable of driving another 25-plus point surge in the final months. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-2026 model updates, benchmark shifts, or new releases that could alter the current tight clustering at the frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone in 2026 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.5%
OpenAI 3.8%
$112,671 Vol.
$112,671 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
79%
Anthropic
13%
8%
OpenAI
4%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.5%
OpenAI 3.8%
$112,671 Vol.
$112,671 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$24,905 Vol.
79%
Anthropic
$12,846 Vol.
13%
$10,793 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$13,006 Vol.
4%
xAI
$8,832 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,616 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,666 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on the Arena leaderboard in 2026, with Anthropic holding the clearest edge among named contenders. As of mid-August, top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit in the 1507–1525 range following mid-year releases such as Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and the GPT-5.6 family, reflecting steady but incremental gains rather than the rapid jumps needed to clear the remaining threshold before year-end. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of leaderboard movement and the absence of announced breakthroughs or capability demonstrations capable of driving another 25-plus point surge in the final months. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-2026 model updates, benchmark shifts, or new releases that could alter the current tight clustering at the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$112,671End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on the Arena leaderboard in 2026, with Anthropic holding the clearest edge among named contenders. As of mid-August, top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit in the 1507–1525 range following mid-year releases such as Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and the GPT-5.6 family, reflecting steady but incremental gains rather than the rapid jumps needed to clear the remaining threshold before year-end. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of leaderboard movement and the absence of announced breakthroughs or capability demonstrations capable of driving another 25-plus point surge in the final months. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-2026 model updates, benchmark shifts, or new releases that could alter the current tight clustering at the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$112,671End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on the Arena leaderboard in 2026, with Anthropic holding the clearest edge among named contenders. As of mid-August, top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit in the 1507–1525 range following mid-year releases such as Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and the GPT-5.6 family, reflecting steady but incremental gains rather than the rapid jumps needed to clear the remaining threshold before year-end. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of leaderboard movement and the absence of announced breakthroughs or capability demonstrations capable of driving another 25-plus point surge in the final months. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-2026 model updates, benchmark shifts, or new releases that could alter the current tight clustering at the frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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