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Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$696,638 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$696,638 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$328,188 Vol.

11%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$108,849 Vol.

10%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$16,864 Vol.

10%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$57,758 Vol.

9%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,203 Vol.

7%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$14,366 Vol.

7%

icon for Syria

Syria

$19,637 Vol.

6%

icon for Iran

Iran

$12,210 Vol.

6%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$18,778 Vol.

5%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$34,415 Vol.

5%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$9,083 Vol.

5%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$11,914 Vol.

4%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$12,248 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$19,038 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$12,080 Vol.

4%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$9,009 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains closely tied to progress on Palestinian statehood for major holdout states, particularly Arab League and OIC members. Recent expansions of the Abraham Accords framework, including Kazakhstan’s formal accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s reciprocal recognition pledge following Israel’s December 2025 acknowledgment of Somaliland’s sovereignty, represent the primary 2025–2026 developments, yet no additional UN member states have extended formal recognition in 2026. Arab public opinion continues to constrain further moves, while over 150 states’ recognitions of Palestine during 2025 highlight the two-state linkage. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in regional security dynamics before year-end could influence additional outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$696,638
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains closely tied to progress on Palestinian statehood for major holdout states, particularly Arab League and OIC members. Recent expansions of the Abraham Accords framework, including Kazakhstan’s formal accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s reciprocal recognition pledge following Israel’s December 2025 acknowledgment of Somaliland’s sovereignty, represent the primary 2025–2026 developments, yet no additional UN member states have extended formal recognition in 2026. Arab public opinion continues to constrain further moves, while over 150 states’ recognitions of Palestine during 2025 highlight the two-state linkage. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in regional security dynamics before year-end could influence additional outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$696,638
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Venezuela" at 11%, followed by "Lebanon" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $696.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Venezuela" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lebanon" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.