**Strong regulatory, political, and supply constraints explain the 83.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against adding ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to the Commerce Department’s Entity List and has begun testing its LPDDR5X chips for China-market devices amid an AI-driven global DRAM shortage. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-company blacklist, faces bipartisan congressional opposition, and has its 2026–2027 production fully committed to domestic buyers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tencent. Analysts note insufficient spare capacity for Apple-scale volumes even if political clearance were granted. With no finalized contract reported by late September 2026 and ongoing geopolitical risks, traders see limited likelihood of actual purchases this year.