Apple's ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks, primarily targeted at devices sold in China, has not yet translated into confirmed purchases amid a global memory shortage driven by AI demand. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, combined with active lobbying for White House approval and pushback from U.S. lawmakers, creates significant regulatory and political barriers that traders view as unlikely to clear before year-end. Recent reports indicate early talks stalled over pricing, with CXMT rejecting discounted rates, while development timelines for qualifying components in Apple's supply chain add further friction. These factors underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
$14,985 Vol.
$14,985 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31% chance
$14,985 Vol.
$14,985 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks, primarily targeted at devices sold in China, has not yet translated into confirmed purchases amid a global memory shortage driven by AI demand. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, combined with active lobbying for White House approval and pushback from U.S. lawmakers, creates significant regulatory and political barriers that traders view as unlikely to clear before year-end. Recent reports indicate early talks stalled over pricing, with CXMT rejecting discounted rates, while development timelines for qualifying components in Apple's supply chain add further friction. These factors underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$14,985End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks, primarily targeted at devices sold in China, has not yet translated into confirmed purchases amid a global memory shortage driven by AI demand. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, combined with active lobbying for White House approval and pushback from U.S. lawmakers, creates significant regulatory and political barriers that traders view as unlikely to clear before year-end. Recent reports indicate early talks stalled over pricing, with CXMT rejecting discounted rates, while development timelines for qualifying components in Apple's supply chain add further friction. These factors underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$14,985End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks, primarily targeted at devices sold in China, has not yet translated into confirmed purchases amid a global memory shortage driven by AI demand. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, combined with active lobbying for White House approval and pushback from U.S. lawmakers, creates significant regulatory and political barriers that traders view as unlikely to clear before year-end. Recent reports indicate early talks stalled over pricing, with CXMT rejecting discounted rates, while development timelines for qualifying components in Apple's supply chain add further friction. These factors underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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