**State attorneys general antitrust litigation is the dominant factor pushing Polymarket traders toward a 74.4% “No” outcome on a Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery close by December 31, 2026.** In July 2026, twelve states led by California filed suit alleging the $111 billion deal would reduce competition in theatrical distribution, cable, and streaming. Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery responded by agreeing to freeze closing until June 1, 2027, or shortly after a court ruling, whichever comes first; a federal judge set trial for March 2027. While the DOJ cleared the transaction in June and dozens of international regulators have since approved it, the state-level pause and 2027 timeline make a 2026 resolution improbable. Ongoing settlement talks have stalled, and daily ticking fees now add financial pressure without altering the legal schedule. Traders view the March trial date and required post-trial process as decisive barriers to year-end closure.