**The Quebec provincial election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented race dominated by the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, with recent polls showing no measurable support for the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ).** Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 allocate dozens of ridings to the leading parties but assign zero seats to the Greens, reflecting their exclusion from major polling and low single-digit or sub-5% support in earlier surveys. The first-past-the-post system and regional vote patterns further limit opportunities for minor parties without concentrated strength in specific ridings. The campaign opened only days ago after the writ drop on August 27, and no recent developments—such as candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling surges—have elevated PVQ prospects. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome above 50% as the consensus view based on the party’s structural barriers and absence from current electoral modeling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated41% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
41% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Quebec provincial election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented race dominated by the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, with recent polls showing no measurable support for the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ).**
Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 allocate dozens of ridings to the leading parties but assign zero seats to the Greens, reflecting their exclusion from major polling and low single-digit or sub-5% support in earlier surveys. The first-past-the-post system and regional vote patterns further limit opportunities for minor parties without concentrated strength in specific ridings.
The campaign opened only days ago after the writ drop on August 27, and no recent developments—such as candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling surges—have elevated PVQ prospects. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome above 50% as the consensus view based on the party’s structural barriers and absence from current electoral modeling.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Quebec provincial election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented race dominated by the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, with recent polls showing no measurable support for the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ).**
Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 allocate dozens of ridings to the leading parties but assign zero seats to the Greens, reflecting their exclusion from major polling and low single-digit or sub-5% support in earlier surveys. The first-past-the-post system and regional vote patterns further limit opportunities for minor parties without concentrated strength in specific ridings.
The campaign opened only days ago after the writ drop on August 27, and no recent developments—such as candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling surges—have elevated PVQ prospects. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome above 50% as the consensus view based on the party’s structural barriers and absence from current electoral modeling.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Quebec provincial election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented race dominated by the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, with recent polls showing no measurable support for the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ).** Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 allocate dozens of ridings to the leading parties but assign zero seats to the Greens, reflecting their exclusion from major polling and low single-digit or sub-5% support in earlier surveys. The first-past-the-post system and regional vote patterns further limit opportunities for minor parties without concentrated strength in specific ridings. The campaign opened only days ago after the writ drop on August 27, and no recent developments—such as candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling surges—have elevated PVQ prospects. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome above 50% as the consensus view based on the party’s structural barriers and absence from current electoral modeling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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