The Philippine Senate's 77% implied probability against convicting Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from chamber dynamics and procedural thresholds. The House transmitted impeachment articles in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats, prompting the Senate to convene as an impeachment court on May 18 with pre-trial proceedings set for June 18 and the trial proper expected July 6. Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano, a Duterte ally elevated through recent leadership shifts, presides over a divided chamber where conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority. Traders weigh these institutional hurdles and senator alignments against the Marcos-Duterte political rift, viewing acquittal as the more probable outcome absent major shifts in loyalties before resolution by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's 77% implied probability against convicting Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from chamber dynamics and procedural thresholds. The House transmitted impeachment articles in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats, prompting the Senate to convene as an impeachment court on May 18 with pre-trial proceedings set for June 18 and the trial proper expected July 6. Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano, a Duterte ally elevated through recent leadership shifts, presides over a divided chamber where conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority. Traders weigh these institutional hurdles and senator alignments against the Marcos-Duterte political rift, viewing acquittal as the more probable outcome absent major shifts in loyalties before resolution by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
交易量
$3,022结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's 77% implied probability against convicting Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from chamber dynamics and procedural thresholds. The House transmitted impeachment articles in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats, prompting the Senate to convene as an impeachment court on May 18 with pre-trial proceedings set for June 18 and the trial proper expected July 6. Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano, a Duterte ally elevated through recent leadership shifts, presides over a divided chamber where conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority. Traders weigh these institutional hurdles and senator alignments against the Marcos-Duterte political rift, viewing acquittal as the more probable outcome absent major shifts in loyalties before resolution by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$3,022结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's 77% implied probability against convicting Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from chamber dynamics and procedural thresholds. The House transmitted impeachment articles in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats, prompting the Senate to convene as an impeachment court on May 18 with pre-trial proceedings set for June 18 and the trial proper expected July 6. Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano, a Duterte ally elevated through recent leadership shifts, presides over a divided chamber where conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority. Traders weigh these institutional hurdles and senator alignments against the Marcos-Duterte political rift, viewing acquittal as the more probable outcome absent major shifts in loyalties before resolution by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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