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Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination

icon for World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination

Round of 32 31%

Round of 16 29%

Quarterfinals 16%

Group Stage 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32 31%

Round of 16 29%

Quarterfinals 16%

Group Stage 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32

$55 Vol.

31%

Round of 16

$92 Vol.

29%

Quarterfinals

$11 Vol.

16%

Group Stage

$581 Vol.

13%

Semifinals

$11 Vol.

5%

Final

$50 Vol.

2%

Champion

$97 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw placed the USMNT in Group D alongside Paraguay, Australia, and Türkiye, a matchup widely viewed as manageable for a host nation with home-soil advantages at venues like SoFi Stadium. Mauricio Pochettino’s recently finalized squad features established contributors such as Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams alongside emerging depth in attack and defense, supporting expectations of topping the group and advancing comfortably into the knockout phase. The expanded 48-team format further aids progression past the group stage, yet historical patterns show the Americans typically exiting in the Round of 16 against stronger opposition. Trader pricing remains tightly clustered because recent form, roster cohesion, and the bracket’s middle-tier opponents create roughly even implied probabilities for an early knockout exit versus a deeper run, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in both upside from home support and the inherent variance of single-elimination soccer.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$898
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw placed the USMNT in Group D alongside Paraguay, Australia, and Türkiye, a matchup widely viewed as manageable for a host nation with home-soil advantages at venues like SoFi Stadium. Mauricio Pochettino’s recently finalized squad features established contributors such as Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams alongside emerging depth in attack and defense, supporting expectations of topping the group and advancing comfortably into the knockout phase. The expanded 48-team format further aids progression past the group stage, yet historical patterns show the Americans typically exiting in the Round of 16 against stronger opposition. Trader pricing remains tightly clustered because recent form, roster cohesion, and the bracket’s middle-tier opponents create roughly even implied probabilities for an early knockout exit versus a deeper run, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in both upside from home support and the inherent variance of single-elimination soccer.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$898
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Round of 32" at 31%, followed by "Round of 16" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination" is "Round of 32" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Round of 16" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.