Traders see a tight contest among Anthropic’s latest Claude releases, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding a modest edge at 36% implied probability amid similar odds for other Opus and Fable variants. Recent model updates have narrowed capability gaps on key benchmarks such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, while differences in context length, inference speed, and safety tuning continue to sway sentiment. The compressed timeline to September 14 resolution amplifies focus on any final pre-cutoff announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift relative positioning before the market settles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourclaude-fable-5.1-max 36%
Autre 27%
claude-opus-4-6-high 24%
claude-opus-5-high 20%
claude-fable-5.1-max
36%
Autre
27%
claude-opus-4-6-high
24%
claude-opus-5-high
20%
claude-opus-5-max
19%
claude-fable-5.1-max 36%
Autre 27%
claude-opus-4-6-high 24%
claude-opus-5-high 20%
claude-fable-5.1-max
36%
Autre
27%
claude-opus-4-6-high
24%
claude-opus-5-high
20%
claude-opus-5-max
19%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight contest among Anthropic’s latest Claude releases, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding a modest edge at 36% implied probability amid similar odds for other Opus and Fable variants. Recent model updates have narrowed capability gaps on key benchmarks such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, while differences in context length, inference speed, and safety tuning continue to sway sentiment. The compressed timeline to September 14 resolution amplifies focus on any final pre-cutoff announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift relative positioning before the market settles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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