Elon Musk's September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in 10 days, targeting around September 12, serves as the main catalyst behind the closely matched mid-September probabilities near 44%. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, positioning xAI to claim superior real-world engineering performance over rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI amid rapid iteration cycles. Historical timeline slips and the absence of an official xAI model ID or benchmarks introduce uncertainty, keeping later September dates and a no-release-by-September-30 outcome viable at lower odds. Traders are monitoring for any last-minute delays or capability demonstrations ahead of the window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe ou avant le 9 septembre 44%
10 septembre 44%
11 septembre 44%
20 septembre 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 sept. 2026
Le ou avant le 9 septembre
44%
10 septembre
44%
11 septembre
44%
12 septembre
28%
13 septembre
37%
14 septembre
41%
15 septembre
28%
16 septembre
28%
17 septembre
41%
18 septembre
28%
19 septembre
38%
20 septembre
44%
21 septembre
44%
22 septembre
44%
23 septembre
44%
24 septembre
43%
25 septembre
26%
26 septembre
41%
27 septembre
44%
28 septembre
44%
29 septembre
24%
30 septembre
44%
Aucune version avant le 30 septembre
38%
Le ou avant le 9 septembre 44%
10 septembre 44%
11 septembre 44%
20 septembre 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 sept. 2026
Le ou avant le 9 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
10 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
11 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
12 septembre
$0 Vol.
28%
13 septembre
$0 Vol.
37%
14 septembre
$0 Vol.
41%
15 septembre
$0 Vol.
28%
16 septembre
$0 Vol.
28%
17 septembre
$0 Vol.
41%
18 septembre
$0 Vol.
28%
19 septembre
$0 Vol.
38%
20 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
21 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
22 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
23 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
24 septembre
$0 Vol.
43%
25 septembre
$0 Vol.
26%
26 septembre
$0 Vol.
41%
27 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
28 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
29 septembre
$0 Vol.
24%
30 septembre
$0 Vol.
44%
Aucune version avant le 30 septembre
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in 10 days, targeting around September 12, serves as the main catalyst behind the closely matched mid-September probabilities near 44%. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, positioning xAI to claim superior real-world engineering performance over rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI amid rapid iteration cycles. Historical timeline slips and the absence of an official xAI model ID or benchmarks introduce uncertainty, keeping later September dates and a no-release-by-September-30 outcome viable at lower odds. Traders are monitoring for any last-minute delays or capability demonstrations ahead of the window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in 10 days, targeting around September 12, serves as the main catalyst behind the closely matched mid-September probabilities near 44%. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, positioning xAI to claim superior real-world engineering performance over rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI amid rapid iteration cycles. Historical timeline slips and the absence of an official xAI model ID or benchmarks introduce uncertainty, keeping later September dates and a no-release-by-September-30 outcome viable at lower odds. Traders are monitoring for any last-minute delays or capability demonstrations ahead of the window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in 10 days, targeting around September 12, serves as the main catalyst behind the closely matched mid-September probabilities near 44%. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, positioning xAI to claim superior real-world engineering performance over rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI amid rapid iteration cycles. Historical timeline slips and the absence of an official xAI model ID or benchmarks introduce uncertainty, keeping later September dates and a no-release-by-September-30 outcome viable at lower odds. Traders are monitoring for any last-minute delays or capability demonstrations ahead of the window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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