**Traders price "No" at 89.5% primarily because Tennessee's timeline for trying a violent felony case makes a conviction before the market's July 2027 resolution date highly unlikely.** Dalton Eatherly (Chud the Builder) was charged in May 2026 with attempted criminal homicide, employing a firearm during a dangerous felony, aggravated assault, and reckless endangerment after an altercation outside the Montgomery County Courthouse in Clarksville that left another man wounded and Eatherly injured. The case was bound over to a grand jury, and as of late summer 2026 he remained in pre-trial proceedings while out on $1 million bond under house arrest and gag orders. Criminal cases of this severity in Tennessee typically require 12–18 months or longer from charging through trial due to grand jury review, discovery, pre-trial motions, and court scheduling. Eatherly has asserted self-defense, which introduces additional procedural steps and potential for charge reductions or dismissal. Separate Nashville charges from an earlier restaurant incident remain pending but do not alter the core timeline constraint on the attempted murder count. The market's fixed resolution window, rather than the ultimate outcome of the case, is the dominant factor shaping the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.