**Trader consensus on a low probability of any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from the Senate's voting threshold and timeline constraints.** Removal requires 54 of 81 votes (two-thirds majority), yet post-2026 election projections show only about 49 senators aligned in favor of advancing such proceedings, falling short even after gains by right-leaning blocs. The current Senate, led by President Davi Alcolumbre, has archived or declined to advance over 100 pending petitions, including dozens targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes, consistent with prior terms. Internal STF tensions, including public clashes involving Moraes and Justice André Mendonça over investigations tied to the Banco Master case, have fueled rhetoric and calls for judicial reform but have not produced the cross-aisle support or procedural momentum needed for quick action. A December 2025 liminar by Justice Gilmar Mendes further raised the bar by extending the two-thirds requirement to initial stages. With the new Senate convening only in early 2027 and the window before year-end limited, structural barriers outweigh recent political polarization. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen major scandal prompting rapid defections or a Senate leadership change accelerating petitions, though both remain remote given the compressed calendar and historical precedent of no STF impeachments.