**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on conviction for Chud the Builder (Dalton Eatherly) at 82.5% implied probability because the case remains in its early stages with viable self-defense arguments and no trial date set.** Eatherly, the controversial livestreamer known for rage-baiting IRL streams and racist content, faces attempted first-degree murder and related felony charges stemming from a May 2026 shooting outside the Montgomery County Courthouse in Clarksville, Tennessee. Surveillance video and his own livestream captured the altercation with Joshua Fox, prompting debate over Tennessee's stand-your-ground laws and whether the confrontation escalated to justify deadly force. Prosecutors cite the public location and prior incidents, yet Eatherly entered a not guilty plea after waiving his preliminary hearing, with the matter now before the grand jury. Recent developments reinforce the market's caution: Eatherly bonded out in early August after his $1 million bond was adjusted, despite earlier revocations tied to separate misdemeanor charges and social media activity. Court orders now restrict his public comments on the case. With no prior convictions on his record and active legal representation, traders appear to weigh lengthy trial timelines, possible plea deals, evidentiary challenges around self-defense claims, and the inherent unpredictability of jury outcomes in high-profile streamer cases. Upcoming grand jury proceedings and any new discovery could shift momentum, but current positioning reflects broad skepticism that a conviction will materialize in the near term.