Elon Musk's posting pace has kept the 160-179 tweet range the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for the August 11–18 window, reflecting his established weekly volume under normal conditions. Traders appear anchored by consistent recent activity levels, with Musk maintaining high output amid ongoing platform engagement and company-related commentary. The 180-199 bin at 30.5% captures the possibility of a modest uptick from breaking news or viral threads, while lower brackets like 140-159 remain sidelined. With the period closing soon, any final-day surge tied to major announcements could still shift the outcome, though the current distribution underscores the strength of historical patterns over outlier scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour160-179 57%
180-199 31%
140-159 8.2%
200-219 5%
$1,771,488 Vol.
$1,771,488 Vol.
18 août 2026
140-159
8%
160-179
57%
180-199
31%
200-219
5%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 57%
180-199 31%
140-159 8.2%
200-219 5%
$1,771,488 Vol.
$1,771,488 Vol.
18 août 2026
140-159
$252,147 Vol.
8%
160-179
$152,510 Vol.
57%
180-199
$112,896 Vol.
31%
200-219
$102,876 Vol.
5%
220-239
$91,631 Vol.
1%
240-259
$113,970 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$99,630 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$90,648 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$83,049 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$43,368 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$42,323 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$29,969 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$25,087 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$22,118 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$15,300 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$15,044 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$6,196 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$5,696 Vol.
<1%
500+
$43,869 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting pace has kept the 160-179 tweet range the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for the August 11–18 window, reflecting his established weekly volume under normal conditions. Traders appear anchored by consistent recent activity levels, with Musk maintaining high output amid ongoing platform engagement and company-related commentary. The 180-199 bin at 30.5% captures the possibility of a modest uptick from breaking news or viral threads, while lower brackets like 140-159 remain sidelined. With the period closing soon, any final-day surge tied to major announcements could still shift the outcome, though the current distribution underscores the strength of historical patterns over outlier scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$1,771,488Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting pace has kept the 160-179 tweet range the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for the August 11–18 window, reflecting his established weekly volume under normal conditions. Traders appear anchored by consistent recent activity levels, with Musk maintaining high output amid ongoing platform engagement and company-related commentary. The 180-199 bin at 30.5% captures the possibility of a modest uptick from breaking news or viral threads, while lower brackets like 140-159 remain sidelined. With the period closing soon, any final-day surge tied to major announcements could still shift the outcome, though the current distribution underscores the strength of historical patterns over outlier scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,771,488Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's posting pace has kept the 160-179 tweet range the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for the August 11–18 window, reflecting his established weekly volume under normal conditions. Traders appear anchored by consistent recent activity levels, with Musk maintaining high output amid ongoing platform engagement and company-related commentary. The 180-199 bin at 30.5% captures the possibility of a modest uptick from breaking news or viral threads, while lower brackets like 140-159 remain sidelined. With the period closing soon, any final-day surge tied to major announcements could still shift the outcome, though the current distribution underscores the strength of historical patterns over outlier scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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