**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 35°C in Guangzhou on August 5, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects current forecast model runs and climatological patterns for the region during peak summer monsoon conditions. Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and local meteorological services projects daytime highs near 32–35°C (roughly 90–95°F), with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical August averages of 33–35°C and typical steering patterns that prevent extreme heat buildup. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected subsidence under clearer skies or a delayed storm track allowing brief radiative heating, potentially pushing readings to 36°C. Conversely, heavier convective activity or earlier sea-breeze effects could cap the peak below 35°C. As of the resolution window, the market-implied odds capture the narrow uncertainty band around official temperature observations, with only marginal probabilities assigned to outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Guangzhou le 5 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Guangzhou le 5 août ?
35°C 99%
36°C 2%
37°C <1%
38°C ou plus <1%
$78,531 Vol.
$78,531 Vol.
5 août 2026
28°C ou moins
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
99%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C ou plus
<1%
35°C 99%
36°C 2%
37°C <1%
38°C ou plus <1%
$78,531 Vol.
$78,531 Vol.
5 août 2026
28°C ou moins
$279 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$407 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,297 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$8,419 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,978 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$17,977 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$11,069 Vol.
99%
36°C
$8,643 Vol.
2%
37°C
$11,423 Vol.
1%
38°C ou plus
$11,896 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 35°C in Guangzhou on August 5, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects current forecast model runs and climatological patterns for the region during peak summer monsoon conditions. Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and local meteorological services projects daytime highs near 32–35°C (roughly 90–95°F), with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical August averages of 33–35°C and typical steering patterns that prevent extreme heat buildup.
Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected subsidence under clearer skies or a delayed storm track allowing brief radiative heating, potentially pushing readings to 36°C. Conversely, heavier convective activity or earlier sea-breeze effects could cap the peak below 35°C. As of the resolution window, the market-implied odds capture the narrow uncertainty band around official temperature observations, with only marginal probabilities assigned to outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$78,531Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 35°C in Guangzhou on August 5, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects current forecast model runs and climatological patterns for the region during peak summer monsoon conditions. Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and local meteorological services projects daytime highs near 32–35°C (roughly 90–95°F), with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical August averages of 33–35°C and typical steering patterns that prevent extreme heat buildup.
Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected subsidence under clearer skies or a delayed storm track allowing brief radiative heating, potentially pushing readings to 36°C. Conversely, heavier convective activity or earlier sea-breeze effects could cap the peak below 35°C. As of the resolution window, the market-implied odds capture the narrow uncertainty band around official temperature observations, with only marginal probabilities assigned to outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78,531Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 35°C in Guangzhou on August 5, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects current forecast model runs and climatological patterns for the region during peak summer monsoon conditions. Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and local meteorological services projects daytime highs near 32–35°C (roughly 90–95°F), with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical August averages of 33–35°C and typical steering patterns that prevent extreme heat buildup. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected subsidence under clearer skies or a delayed storm track allowing brief radiative heating, potentially pushing readings to 36°C. Conversely, heavier convective activity or earlier sea-breeze effects could cap the peak below 35°C. As of the resolution window, the market-implied odds capture the narrow uncertainty band around official temperature observations, with only marginal probabilities assigned to outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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