Current forecast models from sources including GFS data and European agencies project a peak high of 37–39°C in Madrid on September 4, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense late-summer insolation with negligible cloud cover or precipitation. This setup follows a multi-day warming trend that has already pushed daytime readings into the mid-30s, consistent with the historical record of 37°C set in 2016. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with minor variations in exact maximum tied to afternoon wind shifts or boundary-layer mixing. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39°C reflects trader consensus aligning with the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, though resolution hinges on official AEMET observations at the Madrid reference station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 4 septembre ?
39°C 55%
40°C 23%
38°C 19%
37°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
33°C ou moins
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
6%
38°C
19%
39°C
55%
40°C
23%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C ou plus
1%
39°C 55%
40°C 23%
38°C 19%
37°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
33°C ou moins
$65 Vol.
1%
34°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$23 Vol.
1%
36°C
$15 Vol.
1%
37°C
$25 Vol.
6%
38°C
$221 Vol.
19%
39°C
$398 Vol.
55%
40°C
$159 Vol.
23%
41°C
$60 Vol.
1%
42°C
$65 Vol.
1%
43°C ou plus
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS data and European agencies project a peak high of 37–39°C in Madrid on September 4, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense late-summer insolation with negligible cloud cover or precipitation. This setup follows a multi-day warming trend that has already pushed daytime readings into the mid-30s, consistent with the historical record of 37°C set in 2016. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with minor variations in exact maximum tied to afternoon wind shifts or boundary-layer mixing. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39°C reflects trader consensus aligning with the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, though resolution hinges on official AEMET observations at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,111Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS data and European agencies project a peak high of 37–39°C in Madrid on September 4, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense late-summer insolation with negligible cloud cover or precipitation. This setup follows a multi-day warming trend that has already pushed daytime readings into the mid-30s, consistent with the historical record of 37°C set in 2016. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with minor variations in exact maximum tied to afternoon wind shifts or boundary-layer mixing. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39°C reflects trader consensus aligning with the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, though resolution hinges on official AEMET observations at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,111Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS data and European agencies project a peak high of 37–39°C in Madrid on September 4, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense late-summer insolation with negligible cloud cover or precipitation. This setup follows a multi-day warming trend that has already pushed daytime readings into the mid-30s, consistent with the historical record of 37°C set in 2016. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with minor variations in exact maximum tied to afternoon wind shifts or boundary-layer mixing. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39°C reflects trader consensus aligning with the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, though resolution hinges on official AEMET observations at the Madrid reference station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes