The spread of trader-implied probabilities across 30–32°C, with 31°C leading at 32.5%, reflects notable short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 28 amid late-summer conditions. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models shows potential for scattered showers and variable cloud cover that could limit peak heating, while the influence of the Bonin High and sea-breeze circulation introduce additional variability in realized highs. Recent model runs indicate sensitivity to precipitation timing and wind shifts, consistent with typical August climatology where daily maxima average near 30–31°C but can fluctuate several degrees based on synoptic details. New forecast updates expected before market resolution will likely refine these odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 28 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 28 août ?
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 20%
33°C 9%
NOUVEAU
$11,560 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,560 Vol.
28 août 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
22%
31°C
34%
32°C
20%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 20%
33°C 9%
NOUVEAU
$11,560 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,560 Vol.
28 août 2026
26°C or below
$2,446 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$115 Vol.
1%
28°C
$383 Vol.
3%
29°C
$509 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,633 Vol.
22%
31°C
$365 Vol.
34%
32°C
$2,508 Vol.
20%
33°C
$2,323 Vol.
9%
34°C
$196 Vol.
4%
35°C
$379 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$1,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The spread of trader-implied probabilities across 30–32°C, with 31°C leading at 32.5%, reflects notable short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 28 amid late-summer conditions. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models shows potential for scattered showers and variable cloud cover that could limit peak heating, while the influence of the Bonin High and sea-breeze circulation introduce additional variability in realized highs. Recent model runs indicate sensitivity to precipitation timing and wind shifts, consistent with typical August climatology where daily maxima average near 30–31°C but can fluctuate several degrees based on synoptic details. New forecast updates expected before market resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,560Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The spread of trader-implied probabilities across 30–32°C, with 31°C leading at 32.5%, reflects notable short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 28 amid late-summer conditions. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models shows potential for scattered showers and variable cloud cover that could limit peak heating, while the influence of the Bonin High and sea-breeze circulation introduce additional variability in realized highs. Recent model runs indicate sensitivity to precipitation timing and wind shifts, consistent with typical August climatology where daily maxima average near 30–31°C but can fluctuate several degrees based on synoptic details. New forecast updates expected before market resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,560Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...The spread of trader-implied probabilities across 30–32°C, with 31°C leading at 32.5%, reflects notable short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 28 amid late-summer conditions. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models shows potential for scattered showers and variable cloud cover that could limit peak heating, while the influence of the Bonin High and sea-breeze circulation introduce additional variability in realized highs. Recent model runs indicate sensitivity to precipitation timing and wind shifts, consistent with typical August climatology where daily maxima average near 30–31°C but can fluctuate several degrees based on synoptic details. New forecast updates expected before market resolution will likely refine these odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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