The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$216,382 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4,6 %
95%
4,8 %
45%
5,0 %
25%
5,2 %
12%
5,5 %
7%
5,7 %
6%
6,0 %
4%
$216,382 Vol.
4,6 %
$37,797 Vol.
95%
4,8 %
$47,611 Vol.
45%
5,0 %
$49,884 Vol.
25%
5,2 %
$9,848 Vol.
12%
5,5 %
$1,471 Vol.
7%
5,7 %
$3,229 Vol.
6%
6,0 %
$2,152 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$216,382Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$216,382Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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