**Trader consensus centers on three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries, priced at 80.5%.** This reflects two confirmed defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—plus market pricing for one additional loss amid ongoing or imminent contests. Both losses stemmed from Trump-endorsed challengers prevailing in races tied to past impeachment votes and intra-party tensions, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a Texas runoff and Letlow emerging in Louisiana after Cassidy placed third. Other GOP-held seats feature limited serious primary opposition so far, keeping outcomes clustered around two to four defeats. Markets assign low probability to zero or one (under 0.2% combined) given the established results, while the slim odds on four or more account for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries. Resolution hinges on final primary and runoff outcomes across the roughly 20 Republican seats up this cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3 80.5%
4 10.9%
>4 7.9%
2 7.6%
$54,453 Vol.
$54,453 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
8%
3
80%
4
11%
>4
6%
3 80.5%
4 10.9%
>4 7.9%
2 7.6%
$54,453 Vol.
$54,453 Vol.
0
$4,201 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$30,714 Vol.
8%
3
$7,673 Vol.
80%
4
$4,541 Vol.
11%
>4
$4,000 Vol.
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries, priced at 80.5%.** This reflects two confirmed defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—plus market pricing for one additional loss amid ongoing or imminent contests. Both losses stemmed from Trump-endorsed challengers prevailing in races tied to past impeachment votes and intra-party tensions, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a Texas runoff and Letlow emerging in Louisiana after Cassidy placed third.
Other GOP-held seats feature limited serious primary opposition so far, keeping outcomes clustered around two to four defeats. Markets assign low probability to zero or one (under 0.2% combined) given the established results, while the slim odds on four or more account for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries. Resolution hinges on final primary and runoff outcomes across the roughly 20 Republican seats up this cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$54,453Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries, priced at 80.5%.** This reflects two confirmed defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—plus market pricing for one additional loss amid ongoing or imminent contests. Both losses stemmed from Trump-endorsed challengers prevailing in races tied to past impeachment votes and intra-party tensions, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a Texas runoff and Letlow emerging in Louisiana after Cassidy placed third.
Other GOP-held seats feature limited serious primary opposition so far, keeping outcomes clustered around two to four defeats. Markets assign low probability to zero or one (under 0.2% combined) given the established results, while the slim odds on four or more account for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries. Resolution hinges on final primary and runoff outcomes across the roughly 20 Republican seats up this cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$54,453Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries, priced at 80.5%.** This reflects two confirmed defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—plus market pricing for one additional loss amid ongoing or imminent contests. Both losses stemmed from Trump-endorsed challengers prevailing in races tied to past impeachment votes and intra-party tensions, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a Texas runoff and Letlow emerging in Louisiana after Cassidy placed third. Other GOP-held seats feature limited serious primary opposition so far, keeping outcomes clustered around two to four defeats. Markets assign low probability to zero or one (under 0.2% combined) given the established results, while the slim odds on four or more account for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries. Resolution hinges on final primary and runoff outcomes across the roughly 20 Republican seats up this cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les titulaires démocrates au Sénat remporteront-ils toutes leurs élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
79%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains à la Chambre ne remporteront-ils pas entre quatre et six élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
93%
Oui
Les titulaires démocrates à la Chambre ne gagneront-ils pas entre dix et douze élections de nomination au cours du cycle 2026 ?
44%
Oui
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